Novorizontino 3-1 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.38
Over 2.5
40%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
6.74
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.2pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
69%
-8.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
31%
+8.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -23%
1.37/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.22
+29% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.5 Crosses 18.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
0W-1D-1L
AWAY America Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.14 xG 0.69
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
180 Passes 556
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 1-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
28.04.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
3-1
AWAY America Mineiro
3.54 xG 1.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
309 Passes 247
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino beat America Mineiro 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 54% of the ball to America Mineiro's 46%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 3.54 to 1.97.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, America Mineiro led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Novorizontino and 1.50 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs America Mineiro?

Novorizontino 3-1 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 42%, draw 31%, America Mineiro 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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