Al Ahed 1-1 Safa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 12 Jul 2025

Al Ahed
1-1 HT 1-1
Safa
📅12/07/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
45%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.6pp
45%
Away Win
39%
+5.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Safa EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.00/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.69
+12% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +50%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahed
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Safa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
15.06.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 1-2 HT 1-2 Safa Safa LUBN
01.05.2025 Safa Safa 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
18.02.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 0-0 HT 0-0 Safa Safa LUBN
POST-MATCH Al Ahed vs Safa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed and Safa shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Safa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Safa led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Al Ahed and 0.67 for Safa.

What was the final score of Al Ahed vs Safa?

Al Ahed 1-1 Safa in the Lebanon - Premier League on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahed vs Safa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Safa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Ahed 33%, draw 23%, Safa 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Safa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Safa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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LUBN More Lebanon - Premier League
12 Jul 2025
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