Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 12 Aug 2024

📅12/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
69%
-8.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.1pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 14%
+13% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.12/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/3.34
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -43%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
01.09.2023 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
2-1
AWAY Botev Vratsa
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna nicked a narrow win over Botev Vratsa 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 69% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 31%, shots finished 12-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.50 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?

Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 61%, draw 22%, Botev Vratsa 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
12 Aug 2024
19:00 Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Analysis →