PSV II 2-2 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Aug 2024

PSV II
2-2 HT 0-0
Ajax II
📅12/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

PSV II vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.38
No
43%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.79
2-3 Goals
37%
2.16
4-5 Goals
30%
2.48
6+ Goals
12%
5.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.65
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
8%
5.23
X/2
12%
7.33
X/X
7%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
20.3
2/2
12%
4.21
2/X
11%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 13% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.1pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV II v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.27/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.56
-13% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
14.0 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

PSV II vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ajax II
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.32 xG 1.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
350 Passes 414
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.03.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 2-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.12.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-2 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
17.04.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 5-4 HT 3-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
15.12.2022 PSV II PSV II 2-2 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
07.02.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 2-0 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
10.09.2021 PSV II PSV II 3-1 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2

PSV II 2-2 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
2-2
AWAY Ajax II
3.17 xG 3.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
23 Total Shots 21
11 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 7
463 Passes 303
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 46
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II and Ajax II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was PSV II at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, PSV II had 58% of the ball to Ajax II's 42%, shots finished 23-21, expected goals 3.17 to 3.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for PSV II and 2.50 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Ajax II?

PSV II 2-2 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split PSV II 45%, draw 23%, Ajax II 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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