Once Caldas 2-1 Atletico Bucaramanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 12 Aug 2024

📅12/08/2024 · 🕒01:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.4pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+2.6pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.15/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.27
-10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
19.2 Crosses 14.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.16 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
26.08.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
04.03.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
24.09.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.04.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
05.09.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
0.89 xG 0.40
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
369 Passes 174
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 7
21 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Bucaramanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Atletico Bucaramanga 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 66% of the ball to Atletico Bucaramanga's 34%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 0.89 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Once Caldas and 0.50 for Atletico Bucaramanga.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Once Caldas 2-1 Atletico Bucaramanga in the Colombia - Primera on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 43%, draw 31%, Atletico Bucaramanga 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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