Arouca 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Aug 2024

Arouca
0-1 HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅12/08/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.98
6+ Goals
10%
18.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.94
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
13%
6.53
X/2
15%
4.6
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.04
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.22/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.06
+13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
15.5 Crosses 21.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2

Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.59
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
340 Passes 315
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.05.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-3 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
15.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
11.03.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-3 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Arouca 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.21 xG 0.83
64% Ball Possession 36%
8 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
480 Passes 244
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Arouca 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arouca had 64% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 36%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.21 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arouca and 1.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Arouca 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arouca 32%, draw 25%, Vitoria Guimaraes 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5
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