Arouca 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.18/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.03
+16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.0 Crosses 21.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.26 xG 1.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
340 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
11.03.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-3 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2020 Arouca Arouca 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-3
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.49 xG 1.06
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
340 Passes 301
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 21
4 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes got the better of Arouca 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Arouca had 53% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 47%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 1.49 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arouca.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arouca and 1.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Arouca 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arouca 35%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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