Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-2
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
1-3
HT 1-3
Arouca
POR
2-2
HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POK
Arouca 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes got the better of Arouca 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Arouca had 53% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 47%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 1.49 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arouca.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arouca and 1.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Arouca 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arouca 35%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.