Sporting Braga 0-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.65
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
11%
7.2
X/2
17%
5.0
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
17%
2.78
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.17/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.07
-29% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.1 Crosses 14.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Porto
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
333 Passes 343
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
04.06.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
19.03.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
30.09.2022 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
25.04.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
12.12.2021 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
0-1
AWAY Porto
0.34 xG 2.22
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
171 Passes 485
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 51
10 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto edged past Sporting Braga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 31% of the ball to Porto's 69%, shots finished 4-22, expected goals 0.34 to 2.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Porto's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.50 for Porto.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Porto?

Sporting Braga 0-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 31%, draw 27%, Porto 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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