Estrela 1-0 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 27% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 24%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.80/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.42
-18% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
28.2 Crosses 14.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
317 Passes 274
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-0
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.95 xG 1.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
311 Passes 338
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela squeezed past Gil Vicente 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Estrela as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Estrela had 49% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 51%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.95 to 1.29.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Gil Vicente?

Estrela 1-0 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estrela 47%, draw 25%, Gil Vicente 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estrela) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Over 2.5
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