Farense 1-3 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 May 2024

Farense
1-3 HT 0-2
Portimonense
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Portimonense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.46
2-3 Goals
43%
2.01
4-5 Goals
20%
2.66
6+ Goals
9%
6.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.46 — our 28% vs market 13.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.6pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Portimonense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.31/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.31
-7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -22%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.6 Crosses 18.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Farense vs Portimonense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Portimonense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.48 xG 1.31
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
249 Passes 296
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.01.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
05.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
04.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
30.09.2015 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
01.03.2015 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2

Farense 1-3 Portimonense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-3
AWAY Portimonense
0.61 xG 1.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
272 Passes 164
74% Pass Accuracy 63%
11 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Farense vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense beat Farense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Portimonense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Farense had 58% of the ball to Portimonense's 42%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.61 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Farense and 1.50 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Farense vs Portimonense?

Farense 1-3 Portimonense in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Farense 35%, draw 25%, Portimonense 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portimonense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portimonense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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