Moreirense 2-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 May 2024

Moreirense
2-1 HT 1-0
Estoril
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -21%
1.39/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.50
+2% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.7 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Moreirense vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Estoril
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.41 xG 0.76
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
191 Passes 416
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-2 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.05.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
29.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
28.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
12.02.2018 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.09.2017 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Moreirense 2-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-1
AWAY Estoril
1.45 xG 1.77
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
334 Passes 456
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense nicked a narrow win over Estoril 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Moreirense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Moreirense had 43% of the ball to Estoril's 57%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.45 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreirense and 0.67 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Estoril?

Moreirense 2-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 44%, draw 28%, Estoril 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✗ Under 2.5
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