Estoril 1-3 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

Estoril
1-3 HT 0-2
Moreirense
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 33% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.21
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.0
X/2
13%
6.27
X/X
17%
4.42
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
14%
4.42
2/X
5%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.8pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.24/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.10
+20% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +86%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 79%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
17.4 Crosses 17.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1

Estoril vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Moreirense
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.78 xG 1.40
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
378 Passes 193
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.05.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
29.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
28.12.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
12.02.2018 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.09.2017 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
18.02.2017 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR

Estoril 1-3 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-3
AWAY Moreirense
0.68 xG 1.44
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 1
472 Passes 211
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 26
29 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense beat Estoril 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 67% of the ball to Moreirense's 33%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.68 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Estoril and 1.00 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Moreirense?

Estoril 1-3 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estoril 39%, draw 28%, Moreirense 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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