Gil Vicente 1-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.86
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
12%
4.53
X/2
12%
6.94
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
13%
5.22
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.41/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.98
+4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +76%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.9 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
1-1
AWAY Estrela
0.59 xG 1.58
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
274 Passes 317
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente and Estrela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 47% of the ball to Estrela's 53%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.59 to 1.58.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Estrela?

Gil Vicente 1-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 41%, draw 27%, Estrela 32%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Over 2.5
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