Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.59
2-3 Goals
42%
2.01
4-5 Goals
24%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.4
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
26.0
X/1
22%
3.42
X/2
5%
23.45
X/X
7%
9.29
2/1
5%
21.75
2/2
7%
17.45
2/X
6%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
74%
-11.0pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.1pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 12%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
2.81/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.02
+16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
457 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 77%
37.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
23.5 Crosses 11.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Rio Ave
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.20 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
456 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
08.10.2022 Benfica Benfica 4-2 HT 3-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.03.2021 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
18.10.2020 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-3 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
17.06.2020 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
15.01.2020 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 1-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-1
AWAY Rio Ave
2.76 xG 1.81
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
544 Passes 381
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica cruised past Rio Ave 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Benfica had 58% of the ball to Rio Ave's 42%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.76 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Benfica and 0.83 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Rio Ave?

Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Benfica 63%, draw 20%, Rio Ave 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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