Porto 2-0 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Jan 2024

Porto
2-0 HT 1-0
Sporting Braga
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Porto vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.31
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.3
X/2
6%
8.51
X/X
9%
5.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.75
2/2
10%
5.97
2/X
8%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
52%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 28%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -27%
2.59/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/2.21
+50% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -50%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
16.8 Crosses 14.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Porto vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.00 xG 0.85
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
361 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
35 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
04.06.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
19.03.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
30.09.2022 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
25.04.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
12.12.2021 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
03.03.2021 Porto Porto 2-3 HT 1-3 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK

Porto 2-0 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-0
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.74 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
337 Passes 406
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Porto vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto got the better of Sporting Braga 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Porto had 45% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 55%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.74 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto and 0.83 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Porto vs Sporting Braga?

Porto 2-0 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Porto 54%, draw 23%, Sporting Braga 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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