Karabağ 5-1 Shkendija 79 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 12 Aug 2025

📅12/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.33
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
15%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
30%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.57
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
19.9
X/1
27%
3.74
X/2
4%
16.9
X/X
4%
6.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.6
2/2
8%
14.85
2/X
7%
23.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
71%
-2.6pp
17%
Draw
18%
-1.6pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Shkendija 79 EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +70% / +70%
2.47/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.94
+2% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +129% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Shkendija 79
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.08.2025 Shkendija 79 Shkendija 79 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
5-1
AWAY Shkendija 79
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Shkendija 79
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ ran out comfortable winners over Shkendija 79 5-1. Half-time: 4-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Karabağ had 69% of the ball to Shkendija 79's 31%, shots finished 24-4.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Shkendija 79?

Karabağ 5-1 Shkendija 79 in the Champions League on 12/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Shkendija 79?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 68%, draw 17%, Shkendija 79 15%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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