Kerry 4-3 Sligo Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.57
2-3 Goals
33%
1.69
4-5 Goals
16%
4.01
6+ Goals
11%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 40% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
22%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-2.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sligo Rovers EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +145% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
195 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Sligo Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry squeezed past Sligo Rovers 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sligo Rovers at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Sligo Rovers?

Kerry 4-3 Sligo Rovers in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Sligo Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sligo Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kerry 27%, draw 25%, Sligo Rovers 48%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sligo Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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