Dunfermline Athletic 2-1 Kelty Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Challenge Cup, 12 Oct 2024

Dunfermline Athletic
2-1 HT 2-1
Kelty Hearts
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Challenge Cup – 2024/2025

Dunfermline Athletic vs Kelty Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
14%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunfermline Athletic v Kelty Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 21%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.99/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.00
-19% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -47%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Dunfermline Athletic vs Kelty Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunfermline Athletic
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Kelty Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
8 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
The Meetings
01.04.2023 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
24.12.2022 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 1-2 HT 0-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İK1
29.10.2022 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 2-1 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
20.08.2022 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İK1
POST-MATCH Dunfermline Athletic vs Kelty Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunfermline Athletic nicked a narrow win over Kelty Hearts 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dunfermline Athletic as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Dunfermline Athletic had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dunfermline Athletic and 0.50 for Kelty Hearts.

What was the final score of Dunfermline Athletic vs Kelty Hearts?

Dunfermline Athletic 2-1 Kelty Hearts in the Scotland - Challenge Cup on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunfermline Athletic vs Kelty Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunfermline Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Dunfermline Athletic 48%, draw 27%, Kelty Hearts 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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