Redditch United 1-2 AFC Sudbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Redditch United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Sudbury EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.71/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.71
-2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Redditch United
2W-0D-0L
AWAY AFC Sudbury
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2023 Redditch United Redditch United 2-1 HT 1-0 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury İNGNLP
19.08.2023 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury 0-4 HT 0-3 Redditch United Redditch United İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Redditch United vs AFC Sudbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Sudbury squeezed past Redditch United 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Redditch United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Redditch United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Redditch United and 0.50 for AFC Sudbury.

What was the final score of Redditch United vs AFC Sudbury?

Redditch United 1-2 AFC Sudbury in the England - Non League Premier on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Redditch United vs AFC Sudbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Redditch United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Redditch United 41%, draw 25%, AFC Sudbury 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Redditch United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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