United of Manchester 2-3 Lancaster City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 12 Oct 2024

United of Manchester
2-3 HT 2-1
Lancaster City
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Non League Premier – 2024/2025

United of Manchester vs Lancaster City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.86
Over
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

United of Manchester v Lancaster City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME United of Manchester EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lancaster City EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.57/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.42
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

United of Manchester vs Lancaster City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME United of Manchester
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lancaster City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 0-0 HT 0-0 United of Manchester United of Manchester İNGNLP
11.02.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 2-0 HT 0-0 United of Manchester United of Manchester İNGNLP
22.10.2022 United of Manchester United of Manchester 1-1 HT 1-1 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
08.02.2022 United of Manchester United of Manchester 1-0 HT 0-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
12.10.2021 Lancaster City Lancaster City 1-0 HT 1-0 United of Manchester United of Manchester İNGNLP
20.10.2020 United of Manchester United of Manchester 1-1 HT 0-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP

United of Manchester 2-3 Lancaster City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME United of Manchester
2-3
AWAY Lancaster City
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH United of Manchester vs Lancaster City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lancaster City edged past United of Manchester 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Lancaster City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, United of Manchester had 46% of the ball to Lancaster City's 54%, shots finished 8-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lancaster City led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for United of Manchester and 0.83 for Lancaster City.

What was the final score of United of Manchester vs Lancaster City?

United of Manchester 2-3 Lancaster City in the England - Non League Premier on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for United of Manchester vs Lancaster City?

Before kick-off our model rated a United of Manchester win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split United of Manchester 38%, draw 25%, Lancaster City 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (United of Manchester), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (United of Manchester) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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