SGV Freiberg 1-0 Hessen Kassel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.74/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.77
-12% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Hessen Kassel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
20.04.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
14.10.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.03.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
26.08.2022 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 0-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg nicked a narrow win over Hessen Kassel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had SGV Freiberg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for SGV Freiberg and 0.50 for Hessen Kassel.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel?

SGV Freiberg 1-0 Hessen Kassel in the Germany - Regional League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 46%, draw 27%, Hessen Kassel 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✗ BTTS Yes
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