SGV Freiberg 1-1 Hessen Kassel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-9.9pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.4pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 21%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
2.25/0.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.84
+5% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Hessen Kassel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
14.10.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.03.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
26.08.2022 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 0-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg and Hessen Kassel couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for SGV Freiberg and 0.33 for Hessen Kassel.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel?

SGV Freiberg 1-1 Hessen Kassel in the Germany - Regional League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Hessen Kassel?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 49%, draw 31%, Hessen Kassel 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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