12/10/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
1-2
Aarau vs Schalke 04 Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Over 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
24%
Draw
22%
43%
Away Win
52%
46%
Under 2.5
30%
54%
Over 2.5
70%
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
47%
BTTS No
32%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Schalke 04 — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Aarau
EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY
Schalke 04
EU Bookmakers 56%
-46% /
-46%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-15% /
-15%
0.00/4.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.98/0.35
-100%
/
-61%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-44%
/
+150%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
10
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
5
384 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
349 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
0.0
POST-MATCH
Aarau vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Aarau and Schalke 04 shared the points in a 2-2 draw.
Our pre-match lean was Schalke 04 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Schalke 04?
Aarau 2-2 Schalke 04 in the Friendlies on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Schalke 04?
Before kick-off our model rated an Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aarau 34%, draw 24%, Schalke 04 43%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Schalke 04) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Schalke 04)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
12 Oct 2024