Palmeiras 4-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Oct 2025

Palmeiras
4-1 HT 2-0
Juventude
📅12/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Palmeiras vs Juventude Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
76%
1.29
Draw
15%
4.95
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.03
Over 2.5
62%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.29
No
45%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
32%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 25.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1.46
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
23.55
X/1
17%
3.62
X/2
3%
22.25
X/X
5%
7.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
2/2
3%
21.45
2/X
4%
29.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
74%
+1.8pp
15%
Draw
18%
-2.3pp
9%
Away Win
9%
+0.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
45%
-7.7pp
62%
Over 2.5
55%
+7.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
40%
+14.9pp
45%
BTTS No
60%
-14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Juventude — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.97/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.94
+6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -23%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 78%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
25.3 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Palmeiras vs Juventude Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Juventude
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.98 xG 1.11
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
404 Passes 247
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2024 Juventude Juventude 3-5 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
24.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
11.09.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
22.05.2022 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.10.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
17.06.2021 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Palmeiras 4-1 Juventude — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
4-1
AWAY Juventude
1.70 xG 0.44
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
474 Passes 209
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 5
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras ran out comfortable winners over Juventude 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 67% of the ball to Juventude's 33%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.70 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Palmeiras and 1.00 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Juventude?

Palmeiras 4-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 75%, draw 15%, Juventude 9%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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