Ajax (K) 3-0 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.11
Draw
23%
8.78
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
3.08
No
47%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
29%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
20%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
2%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
85%
-15.8pp
23%
Draw
8%
+14.2pp
8%
Away Win
6%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
28%
+24.4pp
47%
BTTS No
72%
-24.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax (K) EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
3.86/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.80
+43% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
430 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.6 Crosses 8.3
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax (K)
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
4.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 8
12 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
405 Passes 215
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
6 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) 3-1 HT 3-1 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Excelsior Barendrecht (K) HOLK1
20.01.2024 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) 6-1 HT 4-0 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) Excelsior Barendrecht (K) HOLK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax (K)
3-0
AWAY Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
475 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Ajax (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax (K) cruised past Excelsior Barendrecht (K) 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax (K) as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%) came in.

On the day, Ajax (K) had 61% of the ball to Excelsior Barendrecht (K)'s 39%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ajax (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.50 goals for Ajax (K) and 1.00 for Excelsior Barendrecht (K).

What was the final score of Ajax (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)?

Ajax (K) 3-0 Excelsior Barendrecht (K) in the Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax (K) vs Excelsior Barendrecht (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Ajax (K) 69%, draw 23%, Excelsior Barendrecht (K) 8%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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