Atletico Nacional 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 12 Nov 2024

Atletico Nacional
1-1 HT 0-0
Independiente Medellin
📅12/11/2024 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
11%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.17/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.15
+13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
16.3 Crosses 13.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.98 xG 1.07
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
237 Passes 323
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
22.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-5 HT 0-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.11.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
10.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.21 xG 1.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
191 Passes 344
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 39% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 61%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.21 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 2.00 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 37%, draw 30%, Independiente Medellin 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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