Bayern München (K) 3-2 Arsenal (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 12 Nov 2025

Bayern München (K)
3-2 HT 0-2
Arsenal (K)
📅12/11/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2025/2026

Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.38
Over
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.83
2-3
44%
1.93
4-5
21%
2.66
6+
10%
6.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
14%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.6pp
20%
Draw
24%
-4.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern München (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -60% / -60%
1.45/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.70
+150% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -47%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 82%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
16.2 Crosses 34.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.0

Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern München (K)
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Arsenal (K)
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.25 xG 2.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
385 Passes 363
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.12.2024 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 3-2 HT 1-1 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K
09.10.2024 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 5-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) ŞMP-K
29.03.2023 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K
21.03.2023 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) ŞMP-K
28.07.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) HAZ

Bayern München (K) 3-2 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern München (K)
3-2
AWAY Arsenal (K)
1.29 xG 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
428 Passes 368
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
8 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern München (K) edged past Arsenal (K) 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal (K) at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Bayern München (K) had 53% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 47%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.29 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Bayern München (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Bayern München (K) and 1.40 for Arsenal (K).

What was the final score of Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Bayern München (K) 3-2 Arsenal (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 12/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bayern München (K) 35%, draw 20%, Arsenal (K) 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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