Napoli vs Salernitana Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Napoli v Salernitana — Team-Based Signals
Napoli vs Salernitana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Napoli
İTA
1-1
HT 0-0
Salernitana
İTA
0-2
HT 0-1
Napoli
İTA
4-1
HT 2-1
Salernitana
İTA
0-1
HT 0-0
Napoli
İTA
3-1
HT 2-0
Salernitana
İTK
Napoli 2-1 Salernitana — Actual Match Statistics
Napoli edged past Salernitana 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Napoli had 70% of the ball to Salernitana's 30%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.19 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Napoli's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 0.50 for Salernitana.
What was the final score of Napoli vs Salernitana?
Napoli 2-1 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Napoli vs Salernitana?
Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Napoli 61%, draw 21%, Salernitana 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.