Napoli 2-1 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.57
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
21.2
X/1
22%
3.4
X/2
5%
17.45
X/X
8%
6.89
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
9%
14.2
2/X
7%
21.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +11%
1.91/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.96
-5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
472 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
21.4 Crosses 11.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Salernitana
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.14 xG 0.35
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
621 Passes 203
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
40 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 0-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
30.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
21.01.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 0-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
23.01.2022 Napoli Napoli 4-1 HT 2-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
31.10.2021 Salernitana Salernitana 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.11.2008 Napoli Napoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-1
AWAY Salernitana
2.19 xG 0.12
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
648 Passes 210
90% Pass Accuracy 69%
32 Box Touches 6
29 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli edged past Salernitana 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Napoli had 70% of the ball to Salernitana's 30%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.19 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Napoli's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 0.50 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Salernitana?

Napoli 2-1 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Napoli 61%, draw 21%, Salernitana 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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