Lierse Kempenzonen 2-4 Dender EH — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.8
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 29% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
54%
Away Win
53%
+0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dender EH EU Bookmakers 57%
-13% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.19/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.30
-18% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / +5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
20.1 Crosses 14.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Dender EH
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.47 xG 1.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
262 Passes 396
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Dender EH Dender EH 2-2 HT 1-1 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
10.12.2022 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 2-1 HT 2-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL2
09.09.2022 Dender EH Dender EH 2-3 HT 1-2 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
2-4
AWAY Dender EH
0.65 xG 3.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 9
257 Passes 329
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lierse Kempenzonen vs Dender EH
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dender EH beat Lierse Kempenzonen 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dender EH as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lierse Kempenzonen had 46% of the ball to Dender EH's 54%, shots finished 11-24, expected goals 0.65 to 3.18.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lierse Kempenzonen had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lierse Kempenzonen and 1.67 for Dender EH.

What was the final score of Lierse Kempenzonen vs Dender EH?

Lierse Kempenzonen 2-4 Dender EH in the Belgium - 1st Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lierse Kempenzonen vs Dender EH?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dender EH win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lierse Kempenzonen 25%, draw 21%, Dender EH 54%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dender EH), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dender EH) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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