Falcon 2-3 Dorense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Sergipano, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No Pick
53%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
43%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Falcon The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorense The Market 43%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-29% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
257 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Falcon
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Dorense
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2023 Falcon Falcon 3-0 HT 1-0 Dorense Dorense BRSER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Falcon
2-3
AWAY Dorense
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Falcon vs Dorense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dorense edged past Falcon 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Dorense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Falcon had 55% of the ball to Dorense's 45%, shots finished 12-17.

What was the final score of Falcon vs Dorense?

Falcon 2-3 Dorense in the Brazil - Sergipano on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Falcon vs Dorense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Falcon win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Falcon 36%, draw 29%, Dorense 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Falcon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BRSER More Brazil - Sergipano
13 Jan 2024
22:00 Atletico Gloriense vs Sergipe Analysis →
23:00 Confiança vs Olimpico SE Analysis →