PEC Zwolle 2-2 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Jan 2024

PEC Zwolle
2-2 HT 0-1
Heerenveen
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.27
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.37
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
6.12
X/2
10%
4.83
X/X
12%
4.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.14
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.3pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.27/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.37
+7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
21.2 Crosses 18.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1

PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
313 Passes 373
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.01.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
02.10.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
31.07.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HAZ
24.04.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
26.02.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 4-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
05.10.2019 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

PEC Zwolle 2-2 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
2-2
AWAY Heerenveen
1.77 xG 2.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 6
421 Passes 329
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 55% of the ball to Heerenveen's 45%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.77 to 2.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.83 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?

PEC Zwolle 2-2 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 37%, draw 25%, Heerenveen 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
13 Jan 2024
18:30 Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
20:45 Twente vs AZ Alkmaar Analysis →
23:00 PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior Analysis →