PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Jan 2024

PSV Eindhoven
3-1 HT 2-0
Excelsior
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.11
Draw
16%
8.11
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
1.0
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
13.8
2-3 Goals
29%
2.97
4-5 Goals
36%
2.28
6+ Goals
17%
2.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.07
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
4%
34.0
X/1
25%
3.89
X/2
6%
34.0
X/X
7%
23.0
2/1
12%
24.7
2/2
4%
34.0
2/X
5%
34.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
85%
-13.5pp
16%
Draw
9%
+6.4pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
2.75/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.26
+16% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -3%
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
506 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 70%
41.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
22.9 Crosses 11.6
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Excelsior
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
3.11 xG 0.62
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
475 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
39 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.04.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
28.08.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-6 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
02.03.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
07.12.2018 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 6-0 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
07.02.2018 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
26.11.2017 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
3-1
AWAY Excelsior
4.11 xG 0.90
69% Ball Possession 31%
27 Total Shots 8
15 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
637 Passes 244
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
61 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven saw off Excelsior 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (67%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 69% of the ball to Excelsior's 31%, shots finished 27-8, expected goals 4.11 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.33 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 71%, draw 16%, Excelsior 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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