Ayr United 4-1 Stranraer — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Challenge Cup, 13 Jan 2026

Ayr United
4-1 HT 3-1
Stranraer
📅13/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Scotland - Challenge Cup – 2025/2026

Ayr United vs Stranraer Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.33
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
13%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.73
2-3 Goals
34%
1.91
4-5 Goals
31%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
6.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
71%
-4.5pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.0pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+1.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ayr United v Stranraer — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Stranraer EU Bookmakers 15%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.89/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.66
-31% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / +59%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Ayr United vs Stranraer Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stranraer
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
The Meetings
14.11.2020 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 0-1 Stranraer Stranraer İKLK
27.07.2019 Ayr United Ayr United 2-2 HT 2-1 Stranraer Stranraer İKLK
14.04.2018 Ayr United Ayr United 1-2 HT 1-1 Stranraer Stranraer İK1
02.01.2018 Stranraer Stranraer 1-5 HT 0-2 Ayr United Ayr United İK1
28.10.2017 Ayr United Ayr United 2-0 HT 0-0 Stranraer Stranraer İK1
19.08.2017 Stranraer Stranraer 3-4 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İK1
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Stranraer
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United cruised past Stranraer 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ayr United and 1.50 for Stranraer.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Stranraer?

Ayr United 4-1 Stranraer in the Scotland - Challenge Cup on 13/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Stranraer?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 66%, draw 21%, Stranraer 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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