Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale Prediction — Model Probabilities
Bolton Wanderers v Port Vale — Team-Based Signals
Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Port Vale — Actual Match Statistics
Port Vale squeezed past Bolton Wanderers 1-0 on the road. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bolton Wanderers at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 49%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the over-2.5 price stood at 1.61, roughly 62%.
On the day, possession split 53% to 47% in Bolton Wanderers's favour, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.61 to 1.69.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers had the better of it with 6 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for Bolton Wanderers against 0.17 for Port Vale.
Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale Result & Final Score
Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Port Vale in the England - Futbol League Cup on 13/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 63%, draw 21%, Port Vale 16%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) went the other way.