Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 27% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1
20%
3.53
X/2
6%
15.8
X/X
13%
6.68
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
9%
12.5
2/X
5%
20.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-12.0pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.6pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -10%
1.88/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.44
+8% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 70%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
18.6 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Port Vale
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.07 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 283
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.12.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İNTK
30.09.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 0-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
25.02.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 2-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
13.08.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 0-0 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
31.08.2021 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 3-2 HT 1-2 Port Vale Port Vale İNTK
13.03.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 0-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2-0
AWAY Port Vale
3.03 xG 0.80
72% Ball Possession 28%
27 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
456 Passes 128
83% Pass Accuracy 61%
39 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers got the better of Port Vale 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bolton Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 72% of the ball to Port Vale's 28%, shots finished 27-9, expected goals 3.03 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 0.50 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale?

Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale in the England - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 57%, draw 24%, Port Vale 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolton Wanderers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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