Northampton Town 1-2 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.77
6+ Goals
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.57
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
12%
5.18
X/2
10%
5.54
X/X
12%
4.58
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
19%
3.92
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.37/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.93
+18% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +33%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
270 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 67%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
15.2 Crosses 15.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Exeter City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.62 xG 0.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
137 Passes 256
52% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
30.04.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
07.12.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
08.12.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNTK
29.06.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 4-0 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
22.02.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
1-2
AWAY Exeter City
1.89 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
471 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City edged past Northampton Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Exeter City made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Northampton Town had 57% of the ball to Exeter City's 43%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.89 to 1.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Northampton Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Northampton Town and 0.50 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Exeter City?

Northampton Town 1-2 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 37%, draw 28%, Exeter City 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Northampton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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