Cambridge United 0-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

Cambridge United
0-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Cambridge United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.16
6+ Goals
11%
20.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
10.7
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
6%
19.25
X/1
5%
12.0
X/2
21%
3.46
X/X
15%
4.88
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.95
2/X
6%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
53%
Away Win
61%
-8.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cambridge United v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 66%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.86/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.85
-23% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +9%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
204 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 74%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
18.1 Crosses 24.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Cambridge United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambridge United
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.23 xG 1.19
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
180 Passes 356
59% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
30.12.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
01.10.2022 Cambridge United Cambridge United 0-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1

Cambridge United 0-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambridge United
0-1
AWAY Derby County
0.69 xG 1.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
214 Passes 184
59% Pass Accuracy 53%
25 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cambridge United vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Cambridge United 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cambridge United had 51% of the ball to Derby County's 49%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.69 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Cambridge United and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Cambridge United vs Derby County?

Cambridge United 0-1 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambridge United vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Cambridge United 21%, draw 26%, Derby County 53%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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