Burton Albion 3-2 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
46%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.3
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
9%
6.19
X/2
13%
5.04
X/X
11%
4.64
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
24%
3.22
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
46%
Away Win
40%
+6.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading EU Bookmakers 43%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.12/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.23
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
224 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 69%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.4 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Reading
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.49 xG 1.80
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
190 Passes 367
62% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.09.2023 Reading Reading 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
30.01.2018 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-3 HT 0-1 Reading Reading İNCL
23.12.2017 Reading Reading 1-2 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
07.05.2017 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-4 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNCL
19.11.2016 Reading Reading 3-0 HT 2-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
11.08.2009 Reading Reading 5-1 HT 4-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
3-2
AWAY Reading
1.37 xG 1.59
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
127 Passes 382
56% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion edged past Reading 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Reading at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 31% of the ball to Reading's 69%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.37 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Reading led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burton Albion and 2.67 for Reading.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Reading?

Burton Albion 3-2 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated an Reading win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 31%, draw 23%, Reading 46%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Reading) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Reading) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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