Alfreton Town 1-0 South Shields — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
42%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
7%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
12%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
42%
Away Win
31%
+11.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY South Shields EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.77/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/1.45
+23% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
407 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
0W-0D-1L
AWAY South Shields
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
05.08.2023 South Shields South Shields 3-1 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
1-0
AWAY South Shields
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs South Shields
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town squeezed past South Shields 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was South Shields at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 41% of the ball to South Shields's 59%, shots finished 9-9.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs South Shields?

Alfreton Town 1-0 South Shields in the England - Conference on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs South Shields?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Shields win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 35%, draw 23%, South Shields 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (South Shields) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Shields) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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