Motagua 1-0 Olancho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Olancho EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.40/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.11
+0% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Olancho
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
26.01.2025 Olancho Olancho 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
04.11.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-1 Olancho Olancho HON
25.08.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.03.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
22.01.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 0-2 Olancho Olancho HON
04.12.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-0 Olancho Olancho HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Olancho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua nicked a narrow win over Olancho 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olancho led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motagua and 1.17 for Olancho.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Olancho?

Motagua 1-0 Olancho in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Olancho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Motagua 46%, draw 28%, Olancho 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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