Olancho 2-1 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.5pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olancho EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.04/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.83
-4% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +30%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olancho
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Motagua
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
04.11.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-1 Olancho Olancho HON
25.08.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
11.03.2024 Olancho Olancho 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
22.01.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 0-2 Olancho Olancho HON
04.12.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-0 Olancho Olancho HON
01.12.2023 Olancho Olancho 2-2 HT 2-1 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Olancho vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olancho edged past Motagua 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Olancho and 1.17 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Olancho vs Motagua?

Olancho 2-1 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olancho vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Olancho 31%, draw 28%, Motagua 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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