Marathon 0-1 CD Victoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Victoria EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -20%
1.97/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/2.13
-4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CD Victoria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
4 Corners 5
30.09.2024 CD Victoria CD Victoria 3-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
28.07.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-2 HT 0-2 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
26.04.2024 CD Victoria CD Victoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
01.03.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-0 HT 2-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
23.10.2023 CD Victoria CD Victoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
28.08.2023 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs CD Victoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Victoria squeezed past Marathon 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Marathon at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Marathon and 1.17 for CD Victoria.

What was the final score of Marathon vs CD Victoria?

Marathon 0-1 CD Victoria in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs CD Victoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Marathon 57%, draw 24%, CD Victoria 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marathon)
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