Cerro Porteno 4-2 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 13 Mar 2025

Cerro Porteno
4-2 HT 1-1
Melgar
📅13/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2025

Cerro Porteno vs Melgar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.76
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.29
2-3 Goals
36%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.67
6+ Goals
7%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.29 — our 39% vs market 35.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.1pp
33%
Draw
27%
+5.7pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.0pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cerro Porteno v Melgar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 23%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.95/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.10
-23% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 70%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
21.6 Crosses 9.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3

Cerro Porteno vs Melgar Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Melgar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.89 xG 0.85
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
197 Passes 388
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 26
7 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.03.2025 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU

Cerro Porteno 4-2 Melgar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
4-2
AWAY Melgar
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
247 Passes 401
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno saw off Melgar 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 38% of the ball to Melgar's 62%, shots finished 15-5.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Melgar?

Cerro Porteno 4-2 Melgar in the Copa Libertadores on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 42%, draw 33%, Melgar 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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