Thun 1-0 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
15%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-6.1pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.2pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -1%
2.35/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.71
+23% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
20.4 Crosses 13.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.06 xG 0.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 278
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
13.12.2023 Thun Thun 3-1 HT 1-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
25.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-3 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV2
23.05.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 3-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV2
31.03.2023 Thun Thun 2-0 HT 1-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
18.11.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
1-0
AWAY Bellinzona
1.32 xG 0.26
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
419 Passes 152
83% Pass Accuracy 65%
17 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Thun vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun nicked a narrow win over Bellinzona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Thun had 68% of the ball to Bellinzona's 32%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.32 to 0.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Thun and 0.83 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Thun vs Bellinzona?

Thun 1-0 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Thun 60%, draw 22%, Bellinzona 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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