Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.05
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.83
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
5.08
X/2
14%
6.96
X/X
9%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.7
2/2
7%
4.41
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
45%
+6.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.89/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.50
+26% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 74%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.6 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
309 Passes 182
71% Pass Accuracy 61%
24 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.01.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
13.08.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
17.03.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2022 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
05.03.2022 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-2 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
07.11.2021 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-1
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.15 xG 1.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
334 Passes 192
73% Pass Accuracy 64%
26 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Genk vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk and Cercle Brugge couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 59% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 41%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.15 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Genk and 1.00 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Genk 51%, draw 22%, Cercle Brugge 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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