NK Varazdin 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.09/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.01
-15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.8 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.77 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
297 Passes 344
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
21.10.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-3 HT 0-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.05.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.04.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
22.01.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
0-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.32 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
287 Passes 262
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb saw off NK Varazdin 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Lokomotiva Zagreb made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 51% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 49%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.32 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.67 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 38%, draw 26%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (NK Varazdin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
13 Apr 2024
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