HNK Gorica 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.78
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
54%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.19
6+ Goals
9%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 30% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
25%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+10.8pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.5pp
54%
Away Win
71%
-17.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 75%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
0.77/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.70
+22% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +6%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
236 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 490 · 85%
15.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
12.8 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.55 xG 1.62
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
251 Passes 531
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
04.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.10.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
05.08.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
28.05.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 HT 2-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
01.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
0-2
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.39 xG 1.42
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
199 Passes 387
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
9 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 37% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 63%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.39 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.00 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 21%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 54%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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