Kisvarda 4-1 Ujpest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 13 Apr 2024

Kisvarda
4-1 HT 3-1
Ujpest
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2023/2024

Kisvarda vs Ujpest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
11%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kisvarda v Ujpest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Ujpest EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -23%
1.15/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.87
-5% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.5 Crosses 20.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Kisvarda vs Ujpest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kisvarda
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ujpest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.57 xG 2.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 424
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 4-0 HT 1-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
01.09.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 3-2 HT 1-1 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
14.05.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
17.02.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-1 HT 1-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
01.10.2022 Ujpest Ujpest 4-0 HT 3-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
05.05.2022 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-1 HT 2-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC

Kisvarda 4-1 Ujpest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kisvarda
4-1
AWAY Ujpest
2.27 xG 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
310 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kisvarda vs Ujpest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kisvarda ran out comfortable winners over Ujpest 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Kisvarda found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kisvarda had 53% of the ball to Ujpest's 47%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.27 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kisvarda had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kisvarda and 1.50 for Ujpest.

What was the final score of Kisvarda vs Ujpest?

Kisvarda 4-1 Ujpest in the Hungary - NB I on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kisvarda vs Ujpest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kisvarda 37%, draw 25%, Ujpest 38%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ujpest)
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