Paksi SE 1-2 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 13 Apr 2024

Paksi SE
1-2 HT 0-1
MOL Fehervar
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2023/2024

Paksi SE vs MOL Fehervar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.2
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 24% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paksi SE v MOL Fehervar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -12%
1.63/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.71
+21% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 72%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.1 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Paksi SE vs MOL Fehervar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
3W-2D-1L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
251 Passes 366
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-0 HT 2-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
02.09.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
11.03.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-1 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
22.10.2022 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-1 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
31.07.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
14.05.2022 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 2-2 HT 1-2 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC

Paksi SE 1-2 MOL Fehervar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
1-2
AWAY MOL Fehervar
2.32 xG 1.64
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
343 Passes 271
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
48 Box Touches 16
54 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MOL Fehervar edged past Paksi SE 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Paksi SE at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paksi SE had 57% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 43%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 2.32 to 1.64 — on chances, Paksi SE could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paksi SE and 1.17 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs MOL Fehervar?

Paksi SE 1-2 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - NB I on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 47%, draw 25%, MOL Fehervar 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paksi SE) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ BTTS Yes
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