Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.48
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
49%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.79
6+ Goals
7%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
15%
7.94
1/2
5%
24.85
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
11%
9.73
X/2
20%
3.84
X/X
8%
4.8
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.19
2/X
6%
15.2
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.94 — our 15% vs market 8.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
19%
+11.3pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 59%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -4%
1.06/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.97
+30% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
213 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 80%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
18.0 Crosses 22.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.89 xG 1.52
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
211 Passes 466
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
06.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 4-1 HT 2-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
2-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.15 xG 0.72
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
133 Passes 408
59% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice edged past Lech Poznan 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 31% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 69%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.15 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lech Poznan?

Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 31%, draw 21%, Lech Poznan 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
13 Apr 2024
16:00 Stal Mielec vs Widzew Lodz Analysis →
21:00 Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova Analysis →